Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8942376cdbd1a866ff93e408fcbb4d5fa4dbf55d24a577af1a025d38c5fb59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,005$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 32c | 741.39$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.54 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 30c | 495.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 69c | 260$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 19c | 252$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked Yes | 31c | 179.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 70c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 20c | 52.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 68c | 46.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 69c | 43.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…223abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 70c | 14.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 25?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 20?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 23?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.