Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x444c1f160c5918a78b2fb8021123e68198e37693e00acc9ea92ff403a36d2071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7bf…89b3backed Yes | 50c | 36,307$18,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,153.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7678backed No | 50c | 36,307$18,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,153.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked No | 33c | 943.94$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 630.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 5c | 470.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed Yes | 48c | 381.2$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 277.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 52c | 190.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 59c | 190$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 54c | 149$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fb…c051backed No | 17c | 98.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…745abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 48c | 39.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…36e8backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 41c | 28.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…8c76backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…b62bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 23?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 20?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 24?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.