Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff95dc889ea3abb0db1ca4b20c351cedafc451286b3d1836310b9ffc524966cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 4c | 1,296$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 7c | 1,142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…4830backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 974.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 790$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…b684backed No | 70c | 770$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 34c | 700.41$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.96 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…3505backed No | 63c | 625$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc655…37bbbacked Yes | 37c | 580$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…9a2bbacked Yes | 30c | 525$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d8…a7d3backed Yes | 30c | 395$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 69c | 300$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.58 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eb8abacked Yes | 37c | 280$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…21fcbacked Yes | 33c | 280$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…6fd2backed Yes | 37c | 275$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked Yes | 33c | 265$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed Yes | 37c | 265$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…c97bbacked Yes | 37c | 265$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 56c | 225.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…2638backed No | 70c | 225$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…0b73backed No | 63c | 220$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 48c | 208.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed Yes | 53c | 190.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed Yes | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 32c | 179$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…5b52backed Yes | 37c | 155$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…61f0backed No | 63c | 155$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…428fbacked No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 84.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…ccb7backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…bee0backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 54c | 60.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…5eddbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…36e8backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 32c | 48.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…9428backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 64c | 37.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 72c | 32.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…9e12backed No | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…b6e8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 24?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 20?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 21?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 23?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.