Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce a general Tariff on imports on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9570d097774e14c2ba95eac90077b41309ba10c01a7d0be1bcb81c892bfaaa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 32c | 6,141$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,168.36 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 22c | 3,698$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.69 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 32c | 3,000$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,499$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.39 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 2c | 2,363$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 5c | 1,914$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 42c | 1,884$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.95 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 1,698$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,674$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.22 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed No | 78c | 1,630$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 8c | 1,400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 1,105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 51c | 1,008$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.29 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 18c | 998$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked No | 46c | 963.96$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…8eb3backed No | 1c | 920.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 66c | 789.03$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 19c | 776$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.28 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 65c | 767.06$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.67 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 56c | 764.46$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.53 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 70c | 700$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 25c | 565.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 71c | 539.38$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.96 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 31c | 444.09$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 36c | 430$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 65c | 414$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…7a66backed Yes | 31c | 398.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 69c | 380.89$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 74c | 362.46$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 78c | 357$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b3a4backed Yes | 22c | 347.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 23c | 299.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 299.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 75c | 257.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 50c | 250.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 70c | 249.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 21c | 220$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 79c | 219.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…09a8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 74c | 197.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.51 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 25c | 194.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 23c | 192.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…9827backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…3141backed No | 79c | 190$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 53c | 187.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…7e17backed Yes | 25c | 173.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 20c | 161.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…828ebacked No | 20c | 144.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 28c | 142.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 51c | 135.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…fcdebacked Yes | 25c | 125.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 25c | 123.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 22c | 119.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 73c | 115.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…3008backed No | 75c | 106.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 32c | 102.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…cc55backed No | 39c | 102.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd70…fdadbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 26c | 97.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 78c | 89.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d93…899dbacked Yes | 23c | 88.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +342.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…2169backed No | 27c | 76.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 19c | 75.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…f981backed No | 79c | 75.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…3fc4backed Yes | 56c | 72.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e55…304ebacked Yes | 21c | 70.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +369.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382e…677cbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…ea2dbacked Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 69.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 26c | 65.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…0f11backed No | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 67cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 24c | 61.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 48c | 57.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…26a6backed No | 76c | 52.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…d7c4backed No | 77c | 52.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…0bdfbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…1dcdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…01dfbacked No | 74c | 48.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 44c | 47.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.