TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump announce a general Tariff on imports on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76b0…338abacked Yes32c6,141$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,168.365843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No22c3,698$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.6921935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a52…cecebacked Yes32c3,000$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes29c2,499$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.397354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No2c2,363$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.943026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No5c1,914$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No42c1,884$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.957740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No2c1,698$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.078331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes32c1,674$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.222638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed No78c1,630$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.221513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No8c1,400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10828320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No18c1,110$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.811120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No1c1,105$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4415124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No51c1,008$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.295642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No18c998$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6411121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked No46c963.96$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.171154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8eb3backed No1c920.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes66c789.03$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.032133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes19c776$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.284436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No65c767.06$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.677646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes56c764.46$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.5315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes70c700$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.93825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes25c565.11$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed No71c539.38$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.966744.8%30 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No31c444.09$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2211612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No36c430$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.924654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No65c414$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6917850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes23c400$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3083834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f57…7a66backed Yes31c398.75$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick20cpaid+164.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed No69c380.89$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.683935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes74c362.46$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.498737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2836…a0cdbacked No78c357$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.861573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e10…b3a4backed Yes22c347.73$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.73560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2193444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes23c299.9$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+115.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c299.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No75c257.35$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.797265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No50c250.15$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8118745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No70c249.99$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5719436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes21c220$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.88355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No79c219.98$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.383658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15419328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd38…09a8backed Yes21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+58.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No74c197.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.515742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked Yes25c194.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.612846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f86…3a77backed Yes23c192.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+61%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6571…9827backed Yes21c190$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d03…3141backed No79c190$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes53c187.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.198030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd632…7e17backed Yes25c173.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.421154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes20c161.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.553315.2%5 W · 28 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-67.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xcd2a…828ebacked No20c144.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06af…3741backed Yes28c142.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.052157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+63.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes51c135.31$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.92218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa7…fcdebacked Yes25c125.9$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes22c125$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes25c123.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.52429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes22c119.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes73c115.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6314048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe534…3008backed No75c106.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes32c102.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9912643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb449…cc55backed No39c102.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+73.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd70…fdadbacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0802…8cb0backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes26c97.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7616544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No78c89.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706858.8%40 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d93…899dbacked Yes23c88.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+342.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…2169backed No27c76.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes19c75.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.558058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf5f…f981backed No79c75.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x663f…10afbacked Yes29c75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9920…3fc4backed Yes56c72.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e55…304ebacked Yes21c70.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+369.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x382e…677cbacked No79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f80…ea2dbacked Yes22c70$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+94.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No78c69.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.637740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes26c65.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.681428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a29…0f11backed No80c62.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick67cpaid-52.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes24c61.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.688433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes48c57.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.051258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf5…26a6backed No76c52.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b2…d7c4backed No77c52.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3832…7044backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8136…0bdfbacked No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick69cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc47f…1dcdbacked No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.613959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7514…49bebacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f1…bb92backed No71c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.491752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aca…01dfbacked No74c48.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes44c47.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.