TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$627,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$642,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes7c32,694$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.87407.5%3 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-80.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes2c14,569$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.281131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes15c13,618$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.712343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf18…b78dbacked Yes2c10,002$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes1c9,299$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes14c7,660$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.843525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c7,528$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.42780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes8c7,510$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.299721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes7c6,939$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c6,158$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.441,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes9c6,079$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.998838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes11c5,984$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.192927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa718…a588backed Yes12c5,984$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes10c5,076$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes6c5,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.281330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Yes0c4,994$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.722941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06cf…2e02backed Yes2c4,600$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0d…546fbacked Yes10c4,419$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes6c3,890$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d63…5f5fbacked Yes12c3,639$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75f2…93dbbacked Yes4c3,634$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c5…4052backed Yes3c3,237$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ed…130abacked Yes8c3,153$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0105…51f7backed Yes5c3,082$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2013…0091backed Yes2c3,062$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba3b…8d3ebacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-71%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed14…7e0fbacked Yes15c2,887$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f0…d99ebacked Yes8c2,804$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes5c2,630$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.462420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes5c2,446$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.191315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ee…b5e8backed Yes1c2,302$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.67728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+120.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4eb…067dbacked Yes14c2,251$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes16c2,200$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.13525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98da…e66dbacked Yes12c2,009$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes9c2,000$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1833614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e2…ce08backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc8…5429backed Yes8c1,886$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb42…d277backed Yes10c1,669$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd204…7607backed Yes9c1,634$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd228…332ebacked Yes4c1,627$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182c…f578backed Yes6c1,570$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed Yes9c1,561$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.222425%6 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b52…7e26backed Yes10c1,522$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0261…2b59backed Yes7c1,346$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-71.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca72…d0aebacked Yes10c1,300$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39bc…f0b4backed Yes8c1,296$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd5…327abacked Yes9c1,291$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x333f…e468backed Yes4c1,272$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0a…76a3backed Yes8c1,231$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e50…235dbacked Yes9c1,182$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a49…7bb2backed Yes9c1,133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe733…284dbacked Yes2c1,131$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa554…6013backed Yes9c1,105$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbb…fd16backed Yes10c1,052$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes2c1,025$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.328048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc3…c368backed Yes7c1,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…09f1backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes3c1,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.491338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99eb…77aebacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes5c994.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x427a…3142backed Yes9c954.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de3…c449backed Yes3c943.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17dc…b566backed Yes3c943.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…b16fbacked Yes11c901.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…4f68backed Yes16c879.13$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.25911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…fdb8backed Yes10c836.96$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes3c800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf764…26e9backed Yes4c776.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2a…eb49backed Yes13c771.43$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e6…93e8backed Yes7c763.72$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44e…bf3ebacked Yes3c762.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38c…8b6dbacked Yes14c733.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b83…905ebacked Yes3c730.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c4…1b32backed Yes10c722.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes12c717.39$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.79053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c8c…2785backed Yes18c711.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5416…5a71backed Yes11c705.4$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a1e…6a53backed Yes4c702.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367c…e50bbacked Yes14c697.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4525…265dbacked Yes14c690.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c0…6a18backed Yes7c676.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…bd16backed Yes10c670.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x518b…c470backed Yes6c666.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf24f…15b2backed Yes4c658.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f42…0d79backed Yes14c650$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f8…6fb0backed Yes4c645.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc062…1239backed Yes8c633.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c55…f3cbbacked Yes9c617.37$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b35…bcdcbacked Yes8c614.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1992…93b0backed Yes8c597.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x851c…6ab4backed Yes3c573.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3152…6e69backed Yes3c571.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes8c558.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…162dbacked Yes7c555.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ad…f840backed Yes7c541.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc0…d232backed Yes8c540.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe268…632fbacked Yes3c508.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…e129backed Yes10c505.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.248123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.