World Politics · resolved market
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00597b15e0b5b768d4af13735cb11220df9621053b59891ccf99c14bcd1cb286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $627,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $642,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 7c | 32,694$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.87 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 14,569$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 15c | 13,618$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…b78dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,002$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 1c | 9,299$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 14c | 7,660$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.84 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 7,528$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.42 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 7,510$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.29 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 7c | 6,939$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 6,158$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.44 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,079$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.99 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 11c | 5,984$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…a588backed Yes | 12c | 5,984$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 10c | 5,076$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 0c | 4,994$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06cf…2e02backed Yes | 2c | 4,600$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…546fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,419$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,890$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5f5fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,639$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f2…93dbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,634$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4052backed Yes | 3c | 3,237$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ed…130abacked Yes | 8c | 3,153$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0105…51f7backed Yes | 5c | 3,082$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…0091backed Yes | 2c | 3,062$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…8d3ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…7e0fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,887$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f0…d99ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,804$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,630$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 5c | 2,446$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…b5e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,302$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…067dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,251$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 16c | 2,200$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.1 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…e66dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,009$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…5429backed Yes | 8c | 1,886$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb42…d277backed Yes | 10c | 1,669$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd204…7607backed Yes | 9c | 1,634$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…332ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,627$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182c…f578backed Yes | 6c | 1,570$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 9c | 1,561$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b52…7e26backed Yes | 10c | 1,522$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…2b59backed Yes | 7c | 1,346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…d0aebacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f0b4backed Yes | 8c | 1,296$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…327abacked Yes | 9c | 1,291$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…e468backed Yes | 4c | 1,272$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0a…76a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,231$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…235dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,182$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a49…7bb2backed Yes | 9c | 1,133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…284dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,131$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…6013backed Yes | 9c | 1,105$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbb…fd16backed Yes | 10c | 1,052$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…c368backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…09f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…77aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 5c | 994.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…3142backed Yes | 9c | 954.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de3…c449backed Yes | 3c | 943.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…b566backed Yes | 3c | 943.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…b16fbacked Yes | 11c | 901.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…4f68backed Yes | 16c | 879.13$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…fdb8backed Yes | 10c | 836.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…26e9backed Yes | 4c | 776.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2a…eb49backed Yes | 13c | 771.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e6…93e8backed Yes | 7c | 763.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…bf3ebacked Yes | 3c | 762.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…8b6dbacked Yes | 14c | 733.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 3c | 730.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c4…1b32backed Yes | 10c | 722.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 12c | 717.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…2785backed Yes | 18c | 711.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…5a71backed Yes | 11c | 705.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…6a53backed Yes | 4c | 702.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…e50bbacked Yes | 14c | 697.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4525…265dbacked Yes | 14c | 690.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…6a18backed Yes | 7c | 676.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…bd16backed Yes | 10c | 670.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c470backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 4c | 658.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…0d79backed Yes | 14c | 650$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f8…6fb0backed Yes | 4c | 645.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…1239backed Yes | 8c | 633.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…f3cbbacked Yes | 9c | 617.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bcdcbacked Yes | 8c | 614.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…93b0backed Yes | 8c | 597.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…6ab4backed Yes | 3c | 573.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3152…6e69backed Yes | 3c | 571.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 8c | 558.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…162dbacked Yes | 7c | 555.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ad…f840backed Yes | 7c | 541.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc0…d232backed Yes | 8c | 540.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…632fbacked Yes | 3c | 508.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…e129backed Yes | 10c | 505.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.