Ukraine · resolved market
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dac5b263a09b9a84d775bbc1cbc856559dbe49d3a2b875e7e6ad42a88d07b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $883,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $807,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $883,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 119,266$4,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 26,421$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.13 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 22,128$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 14,664$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.99 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 11,502$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.32 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,100$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 4c | 10,810$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…4a18backed Yes | 3c | 8,023$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 3c | 7,586$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 7,522$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 5c | 7,259$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…601abacked Yes | 5c | 6,976$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 4c | 6,788$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 2c | 6,458$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 5c | 5,499$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 5,463$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…1daabacked Yes | 6c | 5,354$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 7c | 5,317$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.78 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 5,314$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.54 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 5,300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 2c | 5,090$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…5fd7backed Yes | 3c | 4,981$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 1c | 4,797$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 4,717$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 3c | 4,716$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…533abacked Yes | 1c | 4,364$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 3c | 4,355$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe39…cfd4backed Yes | 2c | 4,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,966$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 3,875$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…e6bcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,698$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 3c | 3,156$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 5c | 3,137$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,127$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,070$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.76 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 5c | 2,902$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 2,777$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…d7ccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,573$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,498$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,473$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb8…6708backed Yes | 6c | 2,398$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 4c | 2,369$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a39…0a98backed Yes | 4c | 2,342$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,310$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…608abacked Yes | 6c | 2,195$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3f…3388backed Yes | 2c | 2,185$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…6b39backed Yes | 6c | 2,134$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…156fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,113$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Yes | 2c | 2,006$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…a7f2backed Yes | 2c | 2,001$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…9516backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 6c | 1,805$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,727$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…2ff9backed Yes | 5c | 1,676$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,668$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,565$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…3d06backed Yes | 2c | 1,540$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 6c | 1,538$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 5c | 1,538$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,528$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…9742backed Yes | 4c | 1,471$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…a836backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…e8d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,310$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…9902backed Yes | 2c | 1,278$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,135$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3055…8c73backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…b2b5backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…4ebfbacked Yes | 4c | 999.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…fd44backed Yes | 5c | 965.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 956.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed Yes | 11c | 949.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…5c3fbacked Yes | 5c | 936.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…2553backed Yes | 7c | 900.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 2c | 896.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…8edbbacked Yes | 3c | 857.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…3df1backed Yes | 4c | 847.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 834.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 4c | 814.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…0743backed Yes | 4c | 799.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…e566backed Yes | 9c | 796.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e93…aaa4backed Yes | 5c | 791$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 1c | 787$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 769.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 763.22$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 4c | 756.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…5a29backed Yes | 3c | 755.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked Yes | 2c | 714$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…e717backed Yes | 3c | 670$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 5c | 665.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…5c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.