World Politics · resolved market
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb21a2ce51f49e36367203187d7a0917c42610561870ef033feae98a4495ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 59c | 5,368$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.92 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 5,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 26c | 3,260$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.77 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 76c | 2,743$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.36 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 15c | 1,251$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.77 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 1,196$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 52c | 1,025$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.95 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 789.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 39c | 581.53$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.31 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 9c | 545.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 6c | 415.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 80c | 376.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 33c | 373.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 13c | 367.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 10c | 346.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 338.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 23c | 292.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 291$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 272.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…e807backed No | 13c | 262$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…9a98backed Yes | 73c | 204$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 10c | 190.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 68c | 178.37$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 153$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 136$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 116.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 16c | 105.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…da45backed No | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 14c | 85.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 32c | 58.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 66cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP?this page
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP/NPS?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/NPS/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be something else?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.