World Politics · resolved market
Will the next government of Suriname be something else?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98e7a04236e92ccc0fc5a31ed2e66f9792e6c16d4be44b2ae2a9c5b4ddb52541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 5,076$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.04 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 31c | 4,605$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.54 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 13c | 2,537$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.06 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f28…7bb9backed Yes | 14c | 1,844$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 53c | 1,550$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.88 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…8269backed Yes | 11c | 1,523$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 11c | 1,081$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 3c | 755.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 16c | 705$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 8c | 658$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 613.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 593$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…9a98backed Yes | 19c | 204$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 202.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 12c | 192.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 67c | 142.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 40c | 108.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c2b2backed Yes | 15c | 107.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 69c | 92.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…e2d9backed Yes | 68c | 59.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…df91backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…1d77backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next government of Suriname be something else?this page
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP?Yes won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP/NPS?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/VHP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/ABOP?No won
- Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/NPS/ABOP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.