Us Politics · resolved market
Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7afbf48e6882eb0c56fa74c65895f815a31f9edb7e8ad0fabb70ee7b148cd707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa37…ba66backed Yes | 41c | 35,322$14,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,482.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…3561backed No | 59c | 35,322$20,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,482.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,202$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 19c | 1,138$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 852.3$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.35 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 620.7$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 32c | 595.25$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 57c | 545$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.18 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 10c | 531$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…01b6backed Yes | 3c | 444.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 3c | 419.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…93f6backed Yes | 7c | 419.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 39c | 413.4$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 356.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 65c | 298.46$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…e963backed Yes | 39c | 259.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 6c | 241.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 38c | 199.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 181.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 69c | 157.81$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 58c | 134.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 30c | 130.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Yes | 42c | 119.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 31c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 16c | 101$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 71c | 95.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 62c | 77.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…267abacked Yes | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…5431backed No | 61c | 33.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb17…8cf2backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…bc11backed Yes | 42c | 30.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…3673backed No | 61c | 29.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…5b16backed Yes | 42c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked No | 63c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6a…50acbacked Yes | 42c | 24.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1a…0d7ebacked Yes | 42c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f8…fbbdbacked No | 61c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…62a2backed No | 61c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?this page
- Will Ezra Cohen be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Fred Fleitz be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Keith Kellogg be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Michael Flynn be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Robert O'Brien be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.