Us Politics · resolved market
Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb991b7cae887579fd1087144cc41fdb3c1a255ac20b2a39cc886ad5acd73322f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,478$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 6c | 935.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 7c | 555$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 499.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 66c | 431.31$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…93f6backed Yes | 6c | 394$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 79c | 348$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed No | 63c | 320.72$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 281$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 7c | 254$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 5c | 249.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 79c | 223$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 7c | 205.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 59c | 192$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 7c | 189$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 21c | 187$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 59c | 183.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 79c | 154$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 8c | 134.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 33c | 123.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 117$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 17c | 111.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 14c | 91.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…f0c2backed Yes | 37c | 84.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…fd02backed Yes | 19c | 68.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 49c | 47.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 45c | 44.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…2c5bbacked No | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked No | 67c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…0ae8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 64c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?this page
- Will Ezra Cohen be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Fred Fleitz be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Keith Kellogg be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Michael Flynn be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Robert O'Brien be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.