Us Politics · resolved market
Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e36c8f478a73de15fd34f05987575e52b5d76e268b9a454f44eebe21bfafd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $311,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc825…4446backed Yes | 37c | 59,711$22,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,093.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd5…6962backed No | 63c | 59,711$37,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,093.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…137bbacked No | 70c | 54,678$38,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,403.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…2904backed Yes | 30c | 54,678$16,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,403.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…fb55backed No | 62c | 32,645$20,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,405.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…8d7fbacked Yes | 38c | 32,645$12,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,405.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,692$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 66c | 1,749$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.7 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 24c | 1,600$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,500$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…3768backed Yes | 39c | 773.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +357.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed Yes | 36c | 700.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 60c | 555$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 76c | 526.78$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 499.98$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 475.5$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…93f6backed Yes | 3c | 394$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 28c | 321.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 34c | 290.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 77c | 277.04$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 30c | 261.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 256.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 238.36$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 221.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 64c | 204.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 204$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 203.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.03 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 68c | 185.44$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 182.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…e963backed Yes | 55c | 180.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…f0c2backed Yes | 14c | 146.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 126.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 31c | 114.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ff…0995backed Yes | 36c | 112.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 108.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 63c | 108$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 58c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 42c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 98.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…2917backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 68c | 83.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 82.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 47c | 75.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 74.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…fd02backed Yes | 26c | 66.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 76c | 63.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…5358backed No | 69c | 58.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…267abacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 68c | 51.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 32c | 39.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 64c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…0ae8backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?this page
- Will Ezra Cohen be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Fred Fleitz be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Keith Kellogg be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Michael Flynn be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Robert O'Brien be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.