Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf01bf31675a7b24ceba40c9845f92a249b81d34e51921a8222e34d9fcafe6833

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $459,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $303,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $459,784 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3e54…fa7cbacked Yes	8c	28,895$2,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,395.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes	11c	24,862$2,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,617.16	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a22…e34cbacked Yes	6c	19,620$1,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,085.32	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	9c	16,512$1,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,505.59	89	5.6%5 W · 84 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf534…e740backed Yes	7c	11,741$861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.09	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d86…d560backed Yes	10c	11,230$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.96	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…33bbbacked Yes	6c	10,755$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	22cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe529…e7b1backed Yes	9c	10,163$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.38	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes	3c	10,131$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.47	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	7c	9,606$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.53	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1276…3618backed Yes	4c	9,528$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0daf…662bbacked Yes	9c	9,066$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.05	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes	9c	9,056$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.28	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes	10c	8,911$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.15per pick	41cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c82…cc9abacked Yes	5c	7,614$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.68	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes	9c	7,082$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.39	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes	7c	6,845$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.46	62	29%18 W · 44 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes	2c	6,800$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+165%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes	8c	6,639$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.25	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,428$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.85	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c05…4a58backed Yes	4c	6,267$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.32	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	6,229$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.97	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…b6f7backed Yes	9c	6,023$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.56	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed Yes	9c	5,817$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.43	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-6.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes	9c	5,507$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes	6c	5,353$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.6	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+4.5wins	+0.12per pick	27cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	7c	5,088$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.77	135	25.2%34 W · 101 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…fe36backed Yes	2c	4,918$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes	2c	4,900$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…71bcbacked Yes	8c	4,873$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.13	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-78.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d63…12c8backed Yes	11c	4,793$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.66	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes	7c	4,530$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.74	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-2.7wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb62…c185backed Yes	10c	3,825$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.5	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…83f9backed Yes	9c	3,085$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.31	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes	10c	3,053$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.21	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	7c	3,035$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.58	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes	12c	3,015$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.97	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6835backed Yes	10c	2,854$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.38	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ed…ce06backed Yes	7c	2,814$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes	8c	2,689$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.35	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-5.5wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8861…eed6backed Yes	5c	2,567$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.92	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c21…d2febacked Yes	10c	2,511$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.69	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x448f…6037backed Yes	6c	2,383$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.98	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5c…9991backed Yes	3c	2,348$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.74	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde3b…18a9backed Yes	5c	2,271$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.01	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	20cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a5…f270backed Yes	10c	2,194$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.4	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9e…bbadbacked Yes	10c	2,150$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…3e4ebacked Yes	8c	2,097$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.67	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+3.2wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+312.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes	2c	1,838$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.18	67	26.9%18 W · 49 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5dff…c07ebacked Yes	7c	1,635$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.21	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	4cpaid	+83.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes	2c	1,487$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	101	22.8%23 W · 78 L	-9.5wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9297…e0ccbacked Yes	6c	1,373$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.55	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes	6c	1,304$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.41	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes	2c	1,293$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	6c	1,216$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.83	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x120e…136dbacked Yes	7c	1,199$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes	7c	1,152$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.05	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad6f…3392backed Yes	12c	1,148$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.37	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c58…c2ddbacked Yes	6c	1,052$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.7	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44bf…ea02backed Yes	11c	1,022$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.46	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes	5c	1,011$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.53	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	995.98$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.16	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes	11c	988.02$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.08	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes	2c	775.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.51	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6780…e6babacked Yes	8c	759.77$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.92	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	741$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.15	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3ad…c13ebacked Yes	8c	717.6$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe238…27b3backed Yes	8c	710.31$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.69	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	3c	702.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	112	22.3%25 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73de…c416backed Yes	3c	620$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	8c	602$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.44	278	28.1%78 W · 200 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	11c	500$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.6	167	44.3%74 W · 93 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	10c	499.72$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.95	247	36.8%91 W · 156 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes	6c	440.34$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92de…35e4backed Yes	5c	439.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a63…6ef7backed Yes	4c	429.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2444…241fbacked Yes	10c	417.57$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf919…4b10backed Yes	7c	400.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	9c	400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	380	23.9%91 W · 289 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3904…c1e4backed Yes	5c	398.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaad…262dbacked Yes	4c	273.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	11c	250.18$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+186.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	4c	244.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+143.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9600…4b50backed Yes	5c	233$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+301.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfe…1978backed Yes	5c	203$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes	9c	201.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a57…493ebacked Yes	8c	190.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4176…f22abacked Yes	9c	162.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…bba6backed Yes	7c	154$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes	11c	142.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo?this page
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Han Dong-hoon?No won
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Han Duck-soo?No won
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Lee Jae-myung?No won
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse another candidate?No won
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event