World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0df75a116b8ffcddedff73247de5bfe8ebc764c5a85bd8d5c441d674f3090465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $441,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $370,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 28,153$16,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,829.13 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 14c | 17,903$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.3 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 60c | 14,719$8,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,842.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…662bbacked Yes | 7c | 14,347$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 20c | 12,465$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.05 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 44c | 11,544$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 20c | 8,792$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,025.45 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 9c | 8,143$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.37 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 37c | 8,043$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.66 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes | 7c | 7,500$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 41c | 7,256$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,273.87 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 17c | 7,209$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,997.69 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 48c | 7,155$3,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461.49 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 5,647$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 22c | 5,253$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.44 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,246$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.63 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 40c | 5,241$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 47c | 5,022$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.12 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…23b4backed Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 4,701$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.97 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…17e7backed Yes | 58c | 4,663$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 52c | 4,174$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.54 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 24c | 4,000$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.03 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.99 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked Yes | 16c | 3,937$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 3,893$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.69 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,753$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…8c0fbacked Yes | 56c | 2,905$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 46c | 2,887$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.84 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,451$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…3a02backed Yes | 65c | 2,450$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 26c | 2,322$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.63 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c8acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 56c | 2,285$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.75 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…9842backed Yes | 36c | 2,165$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed Yes | 43c | 2,149$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.94 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 48c | 2,044$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.71 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed Yes | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…8705backed No | 62c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +316.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 44c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 11c | 1,929$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…5158backed Yes | 28c | 1,820$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 49c | 1,808$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.9 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 23c | 1,788$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 17c | 1,727$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.19 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 77c | 1,618$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.02 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 13c | 1,540$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.69 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 1,519$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.88 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…6c55backed Yes | 44c | 1,456$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…4369backed No | 19c | 1,400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…765ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,330$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c14fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,272$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed Yes | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 1c | 1,118$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…493ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,104$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…1cadbacked Yes | 42c | 1,094$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 46c | 1,023$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.98 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…95a5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…aedfbacked Yes | 11c | 999.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b294backed Yes | 50c | 999.92$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…3de9backed Yes | 57c | 995.28$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 24c | 950$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.62 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dee…628abacked Yes | 46c | 918.3$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed No | 22c | 899.37$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +724.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 41c | 869.5$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…ce06backed Yes | 78c | 860.59$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 44c | 815.69$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.9 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…7a1cbacked Yes | 72c | 700$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…3cc8backed Yes | 42c | 664.75$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 34c | 556$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 62c | 551.89$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 35c | 530$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 54c | 526.09$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.33 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…b41abacked No | 61c | 525$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…d888backed Yes | 46c | 516.19$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 64c | 515.21$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.29 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed Yes | 39c | 510$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…a3d4backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed No | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 28cpaid | +292.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeabb…e4aabacked Yes | 46c | 457.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 69c | 446.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.35 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…d3fabacked Yes | 41c | 431.56$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 35c | 431.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…bf32backed Yes | 74c | 400$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…000ebacked Yes | 42c | 389.12$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +415.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…8ef2backed Yes | 35c | 386.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +415.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…4718backed Yes | 51c | 376.55$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…50a6backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…5f15backed Yes | 51c | 362.21$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…964ebacked Yes | 39c | 360$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 324.74$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.13 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 35c | 321.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…974fbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…980dbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 20% and 25% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 30% and 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win less than 20% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.