World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 20% and 25% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38666ef076cc86f8ca42f02f023f69bdb914bdb05f108aa87dcbd1986a8d0242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe051…73edbacked Yes | 0c | 5,550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +115%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…58f5backed Yes | 1c | 5,185$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,406$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 1c | 3,324$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…7a15backed Yes | 0c | 3,197$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,185$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…b2d1backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,856$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…bfd4backed Yes | 4c | 1,665$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…b979backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +274.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bc…c783backed Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 13c | 110.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 20% and 25% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 30% and 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win between 35% and 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win less than 20% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.