World Politics · resolved market
Lee Jae-myung impeached in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386813cf90074b5b5bc274d145be89a20f07386a3f8a7d370781a0af7196dc25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…1339backed Yes | 5c | 10,775$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 8,866$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.87 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…60acbacked Yes | 4c | 7,025$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 4,703$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 4,680$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…eaf9backed Yes | 5c | 3,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 3,211$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.66 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe817…6fe0backed Yes | 6c | 2,992$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 2,080$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,003$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 5c | 1,770$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…feb2backed Yes | 6c | 1,550$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 4c | 1,528$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 4c | 1,494$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,471$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…5ad9backed Yes | 1c | 1,365$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…b6d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,228$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 5c | 999.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 853.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…b27cbacked Yes | 6c | 805.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 5c | 800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…a0ffbacked Yes | 5c | 740$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,164.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 6c | 710.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…172dbacked Yes | 4c | 551.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…8feebacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +255%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 4c | 360.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 358.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…064bbacked Yes | 6c | 347.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 295.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…2fcdbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…4cd8backed Yes | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…115cbacked Yes | 5c | 211.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…5424backed Yes | 6c | 193.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c70…e930backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…a076backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.