Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b90be3ac6b6e9e78b20d2c9553595115f21946664f1baa801a9a08283dab2c

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $215,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $167,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,393 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes	9c	81,655$7,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,175.68	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes	1c	13,543$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.79	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	9cpaid	-95.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7099…1f56backed Yes	9c	12,890$1,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes	0c	11,262$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d3…45d5backed Yes	10c	8,818$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.21	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.9wins	-0.22per pick	30cpaid	-87.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,505$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.7	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9f…1042backed Yes	10c	5,000$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.98	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	6c	3,446$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.81	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	5c	3,047$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.04	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+143.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes	3c	2,262$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.67	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	3c	2,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes	4c	1,744$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.21	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes	4c	1,636$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.08	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d0…ac8cbacked Yes	11c	1,474$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes	8c	1,444$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.07	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-2.7wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	1,267$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.78	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8861…eed6backed Yes	1c	1,141$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	3c	1,098$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e5…e370backed Yes	4c	1,065$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes	6c	834.2$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	700$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.73	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes	6c	613$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.66	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa99f…5abbbacked Yes	8c	606$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.66	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b5…855cbacked Yes	3c	520$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5d…b69cbacked Yes	11c	479.96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.74	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1707…93c4backed Yes	3c	449.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4316…32e2backed Yes	3c	424.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes	3c	400.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x979e…9be2backed Yes	6c	343.67$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…fc68backed Yes	9c	227$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcab8…9b2ebacked Yes	9c	189.57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes	9c	170.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2b…67c6backed Yes	8c	162$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd902…3206backed Yes	10c	149$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc3…2ad9backed Yes	9c	144$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96ce…d08dbacked Yes	9c	136$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…d8bcbacked Yes	9c	109.35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event