Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20fe4b037a1dc0578b0d125b0b427a06d8666068e8b901b1c181e82bc844c45d

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,882,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,611,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,882,739 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0daf…662bbacked No	9c	2,201,737$193,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193,998.2	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb99f…62a0backed No	6c	98,917$5,896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,896	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	7cpaid	+299.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed50…9e1fbacked No	8c	70,000$5,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,299.99	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed No	14c	62,974$8,637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,637.22	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed No	10c	61,967$6,428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,428.25	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5898…5028backed No	11c	50,618$5,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,605.92	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8861…eed6backed No	11c	40,000$4,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,400	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked No	10c	30,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No	11c	28,985$3,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,143.45	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No	2c	25,330$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.61	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0c…cee9backed No	7c	23,771$1,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,720.29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…338dbacked No	9c	16,606$1,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,504.25	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…d560backed No	9c	14,500$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.09	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No	12c	14,043$1,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,622.46	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ed…ce06backed No	6c	12,218$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb62…c185backed No	11c	11,500$1,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,265	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No	3c	11,147$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.56	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	+150.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…83f9backed No	11c	10,035$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.32	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624d…d225backed No	9c	9,703$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835.99	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeaf…998cbacked No	10c	7,107$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.6	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+63.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…65e2backed No	9c	7,023$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.89	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	23cpaid	+105%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcff7…9120backed No	0c	5,669$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+467.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1d…13e3backed No	2c	5,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No	3c	4,971$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.44	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f6…13d9backed No	11c	4,969$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.58	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf919…4b10backed No	11c	4,724$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.5	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No	9c	4,687$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.36	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff49…69f5backed No	6c	4,362$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.71	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+235.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25a9…d463backed No	10c	3,991$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.1	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+61.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed No	8c	3,638$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.7	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-6.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed No	11c	3,622$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad99…ffd9backed No	9c	3,545$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.09	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No	3c	3,522$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.17	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1276…3618backed No	11c	3,485$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No	12c	3,300$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396	135	25.2%34 W · 101 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed No	10c	3,050$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed No	6c	3,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed No	11c	3,000$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f5…3e59backed No	9c	2,797$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.05	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded7…8741backed No	11c	2,531$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x899d…e2c0backed No	9c	2,200$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	10c	2,189$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.23	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x44bf…ea02backed No	11c	2,008$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.01	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No	10c	1,763$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.35	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No	5c	1,644$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.05	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed No	7c	1,637$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.56	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d0…ac8cbacked No	11c	1,364$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	1,350$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.09	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3db…eb1bbacked No	12c	1,313$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5328…af48backed No	10c	1,288$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.48	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x115a…097fbacked No	11c	1,270$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.74	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfce5…4958backed No	9c	1,200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No	10c	1,127$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.65	105	20%21 W · 84 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc165…480dbacked No	2c	1,003$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed No	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5d…b69cbacked No	11c	1,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa066…bfd4backed No	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No	3c	1,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8181…92b8backed No	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b7…c9b5backed No	8c	801.33$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.28	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed No	13c	791.67$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…9b85backed No	3c	735.65$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	4c	725.7$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc8…cf79backed No	15c	646.03$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.9	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d07…293fbacked No	11c	585.93$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.18	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.9wins	+0.26per pick	19cpaid	+87.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1353…d49dbacked No	10c	564$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed No	10c	400$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a8…1250backed No	10c	297.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.71	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	11c	230$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…39b8backed No	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8307…1cadbacked No	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	72	25%18 W · 54 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	9c	185$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16c…57d6backed No	11c	170$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+3.4wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+154.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcbf…1eb6backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event