Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6590b6d13626f4052c71d41022dc0a427cbf82098882071946285649d19c59aa

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $159,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $103,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,800 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes	0c	32,482$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	1c	20,264$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.83	135	25.2%34 W · 101 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	11,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes	0c	9,102$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+31%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes	3c	9,045$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.98	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2876…c4b2backed Yes	0c	8,641$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	15cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes	6c	6,654$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.32	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes	1c	6,063$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.57	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes	5c	4,333$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.85	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	9cpaid	-95.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	0c	3,504$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes	3c	3,057$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.81	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	2c	1,917$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.31	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes	4c	997.05$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.72	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes	4c	613$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.28	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed Yes	6c	528.8$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	424.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.23	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9196…b4ddbacked Yes	3c	336.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event