World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8e47db5630e31112f8dd106998568d3749b0d41b91b08a9823ab0f4289b0df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd92…6b97backed Yes | 4c | 41,805$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…58f5backed Yes | 0c | 19,125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 0c | 15,866$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 10,470$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…7a1cbacked Yes | 5c | 10,057$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 7,290$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4316…32e2backed Yes | 1c | 5,393$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…08e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,953$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,868$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…1997backed Yes | 1c | 2,752$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 2,589$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2f…e90cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,872$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…4c0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,336$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…8436backed Yes | 8c | 1,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 3c | 1,062$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 936$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 609.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 312.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?this page
- Will Cho Kuk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Han Dong-hoon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Han Duck-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Hong Joon-pyo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Kim Boo-kyum win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Kim Dong-yeon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Lee Nak-yon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Won Hee-ryong win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Yoo Seong-min win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.