Middle East · resolved market
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04034ae674c8efee5fa16651a654cc49ac4ceda5ab971bc8c7a2858ace39bbad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,891$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 17c | 1,865$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.29 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,778$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.52 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 23c | 1,417$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.34 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 6c | 1,399$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 25c | 1,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 19c | 980.1$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.42 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 75c | 921.92$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 800$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 76c | 618$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 79c | 587.66$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 79c | 523.78$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 20c | 468.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 79c | 432.02$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 74c | 392.77$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 24c | 281.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 237.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 78c | 231.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 202.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed No | 15c | 147.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…0e94backed No | 23c | 105.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…c03ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 75.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 74c | 71.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 80c | 61.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 33c | 60.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 23c | 50.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 76c | 50.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…d571backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 78c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 80c | 13.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.