World Politics · resolved market
Will Canada raise tariffs on the U.S. before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8937d0656c24dcfd21136d489cadda9c2ed702b9807257adbac057073da6d21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 1,814$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…9e2ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 6c | 1,054$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…8e21backed Yes | 16c | 646.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 566.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 78c | 553.34$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 536.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 427.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 60c | 219.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 162.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 17c | 150.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d68…3041backed Yes | 15c | 133.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…7b93backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…88dabacked Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 112.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…829abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…e79ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8654…c529backed Yes | 21c | 64.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 22c | 50.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…0f11backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.