Olympics · resolved market

Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbddee0620337135c0954d8536fcaeebbef430c796dcad072ca934cc710a5d000

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,333 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x22a6…8fb7backed Yes	78c	2,468$1,931 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$537.25	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	77c	1,919$1,481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.51	69	23.2%16 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed No	22c	681.17$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked No	18c	616.9$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	20c	521.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.08	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	18c	378.29$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.89	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	79c	304.87$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.18	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes	80c	299.93$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.99	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-43%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	17c	253.48$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.09	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Yes	79c	244.99$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.45	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	22c	215.55$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.57	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadc3…cdc2backed Yes	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No	21c	188.59$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.04	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes	75c	184.39$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.31	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes	73c	171.13$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-27%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf244…beddbacked Yes	71c	139.91$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.91	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Yes	78c	128.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb78…e7c8backed Yes	78c	128.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e57…af08backed Yes	78c	128.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e53…d1fdbacked Yes	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f4…0e38backed Yes	79c	106$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.18	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked No	28c	103.03$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes	80c	103$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked No	22c	101.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94b…94a7backed No	20c	100.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa8…9d16backed No	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	78c	89.41$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.82	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7987…e367backed Yes	69c	78.23$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+45.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes	77c	75.06$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.26	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed No	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed No	17c	63.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes	77c	62$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.26	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes	71c	58.49$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.05	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+40%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa734…65dbbacked Yes	78c	51.28$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa078…8195backed Yes	79c	51$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	66cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed No	21c	50.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes	74c	47.12$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	12	100%12 W · 0 L	+2.7wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	76c	44.92$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes	74c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	63cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebc…41f2backed Yes	79c	25.16$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.16	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	63cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d82…1b29backed Yes	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes	79c	23.42$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22d8…682abacked Yes	78c	15.56$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.48	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44b0…2a3fbacked Yes	79c	14.26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.94	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	70cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…c33cbacked Yes	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event