Olympics · resolved market

Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345e88b65346f1d7bd2ef488480c734cb689ff7f9075a2b68b6f7a232178e537

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,430 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	14c	2,742$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.96	69	23.2%16 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x895f…cfadbacked Yes	18c	1,000$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	23cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	19c	846.99$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.71	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	13c	772.73$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.27	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7769…da08backed Yes	20c	768.69$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	12c	711.71$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.95	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes	14c	585.58$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x899f…f8a2backed Yes	16c	472.24$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	15c	407.83$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.7	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd50…bc1fbacked Yes	16c	369.82$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…b091backed Yes	12c	328.63$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x091f…45d9backed Yes	17c	286.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc138…2ec6backed Yes	14c	269.17$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	13c	250$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	13c	240.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.37	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Yes	16c	206.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d3…eb28backed Yes	14c	192.03$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d79…3c9fbacked Yes	23c	177.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes	13c	168.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.93	61	37.7%23 W · 38 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes	13c	163.25$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes	13c	162.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…842fbacked Yes	11c	162.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe719…a934backed Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	13c	143.18$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	13c	138$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-4.9wins	-0.18per pick	44cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x969b…e85dbacked Yes	15c	135.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e70…4af9backed Yes	15c	132.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad1…20d8backed Yes	15c	129.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes	16c	122.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc77b…d1f1backed Yes	15c	122.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed Yes	16c	121.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes	15c	120.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes	13c	106.38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes	15c	101.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…5f59backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed62…01d7backed Yes	22c	90.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-56%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3d…57b9backed Yes	18c	84.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes	22c	74.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes	14c	73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad42…1a79backed Yes	18c	60.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c48…02cdbacked Yes	42c	47.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No	58c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.63	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event