Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551e05a413e1580ed9e641f962f573daa738ae6f0629a10d7f04cb3ffe661b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 8,600$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 6,329$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.72 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,076$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 4,350$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 3,897$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,155$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…3972backed Yes | 5c | 3,088$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…a5f8backed Yes | 24c | 3,085$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 5c | 2,517$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…cfd5backed Yes | 8c | 2,002$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,594$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 7c | 1,571$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,555$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 54c | 1,384$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…eff7backed Yes | 3c | 1,263$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 9c | 1,211$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…d178backed Yes | 12c | 1,093$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 4c | 952.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…8da6backed Yes | 18c | 875.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…5a18backed Yes | 3c | 753$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…1f66backed Yes | 7c | 750$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…3d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 613.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 4c | 542.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 10c | 505$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 467.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 10c | 372.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 4c | 372.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes | 11c | 370.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…d193backed Yes | 5c | 331.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…d285backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…eb60backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 6c | 187.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 12c | 173.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…84c7backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…c696backed Yes | 12c | 166.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 15c | 164.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 77c | 110.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…9a89backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.