Us Politics · resolved market
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512718d1e86486239479452aecfcdbc89387f5d4ceb2182a290425f3b309ab20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 30c | 5,000$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed Yes | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 1,604$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 66c | 941.4$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.14 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked No | 35c | 905.37$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 73c | 865.52$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.8 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…47bebacked No | 35c | 566.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 74c | 484.01$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked Yes | 61c | 404.91$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 55c | 384.61$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…2abdbacked No | 53c | 373.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 37c | 370$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 71c | 342.98$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 15c | 332.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.04 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 71c | 294.38$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 73c | 274.4$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 67c | 261.83$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 20c | 231.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 25c | 229.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 217.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…b46bbacked No | 33c | 151.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 27c | 151.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3c…4eb8backed Yes | 74c | 134.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 50c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…d53dbacked Yes | 65c | 112.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 15c | 111.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 20c | 108.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 35c | 106$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…01f6backed No | 38c | 105.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 36c | 102.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 101.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 29c | 101.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…ae16backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…63c3backed No | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…92e0backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…d8bebacked No | 30c | 74.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…0022backed No | 39c | 64.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed No | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 67c | 63.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…b966backed Yes | 73c | 55.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 67c | 52.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 34c | 51.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3157…3234backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 69c | 48.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 62c | 43.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 43.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77df…0be4backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…55febacked No | 29c | 39.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…86a7backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…05bebacked Yes | 49c | 32.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…39b1backed Yes | 63c | 31.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed Yes | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3715…9d3abacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…d304backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f1…d390backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 77c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…b064backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 54c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…1b65backed Yes | 73c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.