Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72da4293237ee27a7120065b456131f4fa9e23ce62fe015e4f42857b0d24fcb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 65c | 18,464$11,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,533.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…0113backed No | 1c | 5,137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 29c | 4,533$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 45c | 3,938$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.07 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 38c | 3,608$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 35c | 2,640$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 26c | 1,600$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.16 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 43c | 1,579$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 60c | 1,537$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fe…7834backed No | 41c | 1,510$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 1,353$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 33c | 1,200$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 32c | 1,158$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed No | 47c | 1,131$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…aff1backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…b56dbacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 61c | 999.98$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes | 53c | 914.52$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…a5f8backed No | 53c | 891.92$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 43c | 890.41$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.63 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 56c | 880.93$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.09 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 799.99$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 55c | 758$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.44 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d07bbacked No | 37c | 715.74$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 26c | 700$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 72c | 699.99$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 34c | 682$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 646.72$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 26c | 630.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…1747backed No | 50c | 581.83$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 32c | 574.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.98 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 53c | 569.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…d452backed No | 25c | 536.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 51c | 525.93$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 74c | 431.9$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…b0e3backed No | 27c | 407.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 32c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 51c | 395.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked No | 26c | 355.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 331$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed Yes | 62c | 327.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 312.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 56c | 296.05$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 49c | 269$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 27c | 263.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 73c | 246.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 52c | 232.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 37c | 211$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 74c | 205$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d39backed No | 25c | 201.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 24c | 201.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 76c | 196.89$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 49c | 180$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…312abacked Yes | 61c | 173.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 23c | 168.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…a29fbacked No | 25c | 161.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 161.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 28c | 161.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 64c | 137.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 77c | 132.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Yes | 68c | 130.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…520bbacked No | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…0aadbacked Yes | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 35c | 119.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 26c | 114.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 46c | 109.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 26c | 107.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 37c | 100.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…d285backed Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfb…1b5cbacked No | 26c | 96.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 57c | 92.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked No | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…e574backed No | 25c | 86.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 33c | 80.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 51c | 77.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 50c | 77.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.