World Politics · resolved market
Lula out before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b406282c1239f565eef6c559367b2f303b221c3add36cb7725c3044a431cf2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe56…9be6backed Yes | 17c | 3,327$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 18c | 1,800$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 21c | 1,463$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…cdacbacked Yes | 16c | 999.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…d13cbacked No | 77c | 907.75$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 857.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed Yes | 19c | 745.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 11c | 704.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 78c | 690.86$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked Yes | 3c | 665.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…eea0backed Yes | 20c | 595.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…8f58backed Yes | 5c | 537.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…78f5backed Yes | 19c | 526.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 24c | 502.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 4c | 490.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 472.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…a1cebacked Yes | 3c | 399.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 19c | 387.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -79%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 340.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2271backed Yes | 3c | 327.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0b…ef0cbacked Yes | 3c | 322.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde20…c8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 278.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…67fcbacked Yes | 22c | 268.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…63d0backed Yes | 18c | 267.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ba…a847backed Yes | 6c | 262.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 21c | 227.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…50d5backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…9c79backed No | 78c | 191.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3589…e4fabacked Yes | 20c | 181.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…b72ebacked Yes | 8c | 176.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 20c | 123.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 16c | 122.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fa…21f3backed No | 77c | 116.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9738…9818backed No | 79c | 113.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 11c | 101.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…0c6abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…ab5dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…d868backed Yes | 18c | 83.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…bdacbacked No | 76c | 82.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 80c | 80.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 26c | 61.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 51.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 79c | 48.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…759fbacked Yes | 27c | 45.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6696…8169backed Yes | 24c | 45.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cac2backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…f18fbacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…7f70backed No | 78c | 44.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…0d92backed Yes | 25c | 40.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 73c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…a862backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.