Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843a47b205c01a2c4ed0578575ccd0b5c905c25e9190d636e96150f1f5547d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03cd…d07bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,237$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 24c | 1,323$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 999.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 830.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 26c | 664.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…cfa2backed No | 77c | 556.05$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 23c | 554.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 27c | 499.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 19c | 484.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 9c | 484.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 67c | 455.16$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 34c | 407.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 79c | 308.4$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…8e3abacked Yes | 23c | 295.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…33c5backed Yes | 30c | 262.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 8c | 219.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 75c | 215.79$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 77c | 214.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 78c | 212.35$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 29c | 205$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 80c | 204.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 25c | 201.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 76c | 176.04$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 158.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed No | 73c | 139.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 73c | 137.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…a5f8backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…cf38backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 75c | 132.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…e130backed No | 80c | 125.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…f2f9backed No | 73c | 113.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…3530backed Yes | 12c | 110.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…99a3backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed No | 80c | 67.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 70c | 58.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…2225backed No | 79c | 50.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…df44backed Yes | 23c | 45.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…2891backed No | 73c | 37.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…73f4backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…eed2backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…d507backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeed…4af2backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…24ccbacked No | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…a839backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d39backed No | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…b236backed No | 75c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.