Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. take a stake in Intel by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ae61ad56a822fb2e0ad2871e09fecb0d61941a4a872a01973fbd6585d65254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 40c | 3,289$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,518$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 79c | 2,461$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.96 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 5c | 1,932$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 42c | 1,453$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.08 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 7c | 1,290$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 34c | 918.17$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.7 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…a41abacked No | 32c | 629.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 35c | 520$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…a31abacked No | 62c | 509.6$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 35c | 502.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.78 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 80c | 475$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 64c | 420$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…d4b6backed Yes | 67c | 416.84$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 37c | 401.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 400$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 34c | 399.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.98 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 380$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.96 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 67c | 356.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…6d89backed Yes | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 35c | 337.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 312.17$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.68 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 64c | 308.32$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…29e9backed Yes | 35c | 287$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed No | 60c | 253.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2356…b217backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 35c | 237.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 214.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 19c | 200.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 36c | 178.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…9d6bbacked No | 41c | 149.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 144$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 105.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 102$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd139…bb80backed No | 67c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…aebfbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 35c | 42.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…0c39backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…477bbacked Yes | 34c | 30.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…bed2backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 66c | 21.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e002backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8532backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.