Weather · resolved market
Megaquake before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc63cfa15f9f29b13f31101f44973abc4276999abc6aa018a96cc0309f1cf47c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,373,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,314,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,373,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed No | 0c | 70,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 5c | 61,776$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,596.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 59,461$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed No | 0c | 37,176$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 2c | 34,509$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 3c | 32,345$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 4c | 21,665$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,849.13 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 73c | 17,802$12,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,909.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…2814backed Yes | 6c | 15,049$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,208.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 2c | 14,929$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…da6fbacked No | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 0c | 12,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…59a0backed No | 0c | 11,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 10c | 11,180$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…01e6backed No | 0c | 11,095$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 4c | 10,636$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 2c | 10,232$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,231$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,917.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d637backed Yes | 6c | 10,102$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,502.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,585.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…4a0bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…ab37backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…55febacked No | 0c | 8,533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 7,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,125 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 7c | 7,371$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,849.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +371.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…297bbacked No | 0c | 7,210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 6,967$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.55 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 7c | 6,889$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…708fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,862$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,376.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,313.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…4faabacked Yes | 6c | 6,727$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,346.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,670.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,588$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,133.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…b627backed No | 0c | 6,410$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed No | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 5,725$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,383.82 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 2c | 5,501$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 2c | 5,281$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 4c | 5,161$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,961.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +831.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 43c | 5,109$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…4ebebacked No | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609d…4bf0backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…daa5backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…d976backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 9c | 4,190$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 64c | 3,719$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.88 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…635cbacked No | 1c | 3,235$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f54…370ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,118$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 20c | 3,070$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…2a9fbacked No | 10c | 3,068$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 3,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 2,459$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.37 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 2c | 2,360$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,273$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…3972backed Yes | 5c | 2,208$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked Yes | 4c | 1,906$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,900$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.17 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,703$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 3c | 1,683$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 15c | 1,632$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.9 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,496$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +718.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 2c | 1,487$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.64 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 3c | 1,451$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,512.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 1,451$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.38 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 7c | 1,399$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +207.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…287cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,316$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 6c | 1,248$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,587.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb8…7d13backed Yes | 6c | 1,209$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,528.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 5c | 1,207$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.22 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 43c | 1,180$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 1,150$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 1c | 1,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +801.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a9…c586backed Yes | 6c | 1,093$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,581.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked No | 4c | 1,069$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 3c | 1,048$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 6c | 1,034$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…290fbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +482.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,751.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 999.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.61 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 60c | 998$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 4c | 954.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 3c | 900$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 22c | 900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…3d9cbacked Yes | 8c | 869.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…9f86backed Yes | 64c | 846.44$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 12c | 841.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +320.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 6c | 813.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…f8e4backed Yes | 6c | 769.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +742.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed Yes | 4c | 747$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 740$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 22c | 739.76$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…5feebacked No | 3c | 728.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 727.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 3c | 699.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +407%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 9c | 659.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 45c | 626.82$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…3219backed Yes | 10c | 587.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +878.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…9eabbacked Yes | 4c | 541.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,252.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5791backed Yes | 6c | 527.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,469.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…a33dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,624.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.