Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb565bb460ef7c442187739af958fd7d4b16d0868e2dac9bed7c734acbd14c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 27c | 16,266$4,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,333.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 74c | 4,706$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.63 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 74c | 4,267$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 72c | 3,154$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 5c | 3,046$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 25c | 3,000$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.06 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 27c | 2,242$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 72c | 2,230$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 74c | 1,656$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.88 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 74c | 1,567$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No | 28c | 1,405$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 1,295$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.76 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…182abacked No | 32c | 927.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…3222backed No | 25c | 927.56$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 69c | 828$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 28c | 688.96$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…1cedbacked No | 25c | 592.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…290fbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +482.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 480.85$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked No | 25c | 405.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked No | 23c | 399.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…635cbacked No | 28c | 354.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaf…6774backed Yes | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…815ebacked Yes | 73c | 318.9$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed No | 32c | 315.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed No | 33c | 304.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 75c | 304$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 73c | 287.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 27c | 264.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 74c | 255.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…a95bbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…2c06backed Yes | 74c | 197.49$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 75c | 192$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…13abbacked No | 6c | 191.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa050…3e54backed No | 27c | 183.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…14d9backed No | 28c | 179.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…312abacked Yes | 73c | 177.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 22c | 175.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 75c | 172.81$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 71c | 167.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 76c | 124.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 120.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdc…b530backed Yes | 70c | 115.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +232.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 71c | 104.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 75c | 102.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked No | 26c | 100.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 26c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 75c | 92.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…b0e3backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 25c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c174backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 28c | 71.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…0590backed No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…e8ffbacked Yes | 73c | 66.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f00…7e3cbacked Yes | 76c | 55.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 70c | 47.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…871dbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a50…ea07backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…9848backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…295dbacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f1…ae33backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…d857backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…d34fbacked Yes | 75c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.