AI · resolved market
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91ca8873ac8f226e8bfc6247c10ccade9aceed138d5542f3bbd614c35dfbab81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 16c | 5,174$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.73 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…155abacked Yes | 8c | 2,581$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…ff74backed No | 75c | 2,574$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 2,446$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…dc08backed Yes | 36c | 1,996$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 11c | 1,572$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…d251backed Yes | 41c | 1,226$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 28c | 1,008$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.99 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…ffcdbacked No | 75c | 989.64$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 974$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 955.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…24adbacked Yes | 10c | 899.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 59c | 867.5$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.82 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed Yes | 22c | 790$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…109fbacked Yes | 7c | 724.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked No | 64c | 699.97$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 684.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…f162backed Yes | 39c | 610.19$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked No | 73c | 603.89$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 603$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 29c | 550.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…2e44backed Yes | 9c | 545.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 14c | 450$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes | 27c | 380$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…a888backed Yes | 7c | 351.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed No | 72c | 300$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…9767backed Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 261.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 27c | 220.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 200.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 190.47$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 24c | 160$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 65c | 144.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…faf3backed No | 76c | 131.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…ab37backed No | 78c | 111.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 71c | 105.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…a9f3backed No | 71c | 95.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…54f6backed No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…73b5backed Yes | 20c | 69.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes | 29c | 67.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 75c | 64.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 61.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 70c | 53.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 22c | 53.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…832cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 67c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.