Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3a87463b6545b17454d4f159f9313c6960e84c37c9b6fc1af76ff269e45581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 76c | 9,550$7,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.67 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 23c | 7,297$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 76c | 3,996$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.06 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 24c | 2,697$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed No | 2c | 2,300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 25c | 2,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,344$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…312abacked Yes | 78c | 1,251$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 25c | 1,095$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 16c | 969.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 22c | 894.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 75c | 705.88$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked No | 22c | 699.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d7bcbacked Yes | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 80c | 588.44$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 76c | 455.08$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…63e3backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…94d6backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 22c | 399.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked No | 24c | 375$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 78c | 374.98$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…0426backed No | 24c | 355.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 21c | 343.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 79c | 299.97$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 77c | 224$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 76c | 222$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 25c | 201.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 200.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…d411backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 77c | 198.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…f34abacked No | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…7d29backed No | 23c | 179.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…d869backed No | 24c | 136.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…da26backed No | 23c | 132.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2603…5161backed No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed No | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…8c72backed No | 23c | 120.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…0bf8backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 78c | 116.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7d…454bbacked No | 21c | 112.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…038ebacked No | 22c | 107.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed No | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…89ddbacked No | 23c | 85.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…3cafbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…8fe0backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 78c | 40.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…b10abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 78c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb645…ca95backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…31c6backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.