NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals: Will any game go to overtime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17999cc0de2c0473d7b7310e01c2356ed257f80cdf5970dc9c3cef5bc180bf36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 79c | 5,072$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.15 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 8c | 3,920$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.43 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 21c | 3,372$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 80c | 2,642$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,894$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 80c | 850$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.03 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed No | 80c | 737.34$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…e428backed Yes | 23c | 584.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 21c | 565.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 498.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 16c | 487.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 13c | 454.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f82cbacked Yes | 23c | 434.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 389.35$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 14c | 297.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 296.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 18c | 276.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 13c | 260$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 77c | 227.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 22c | 223$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…3fa1backed Yes | 12c | 202.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked Yes | 13c | 156.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…9753backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 17c | 145.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 23c | 143.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 51.4%147 W · 139 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…07fabacked Yes | 19c | 131.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6042…6330backed Yes | 8c | 125.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Yes | 22c | 115.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…4b32backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c18…fdc1backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…ceb0backed Yes | 13c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…9856backed Yes | 23c | 102.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…a91cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…1e09backed Yes | 22c | 90.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…9480backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…5aacbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee20backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.