La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Betis vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3890b2fda5c4de888500ea9e128c69f5079e3ab212f26589a650878a35e6551
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 31c | 1,999$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.6 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 69c | 1,022$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 69c | 897.52$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.23 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 62c | 881.11$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.82 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Yes | 41c | 478.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 59c | 367.13$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…8c6bbacked No | 65c | 309.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 38c | 269.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 69c | 175$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 150.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 69c | 146.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 73c | 112.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…a4e0backed Yes | 27c | 107.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 45.5%121 W · 145 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Betis vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-31?Yes won
- Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.