Premier League · resolved market
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x183949fc1d588171c51f767830a200f5199a1dc29e78a30fb24a99eac3742c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 51c | 9,256$4,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,701.41 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Yes | 53c | 9,138$4,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,843 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 47c | 8,749$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.44 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 47c | 3,757$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked No | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 52c | 2,700$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 50c | 2,440$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.42 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 53c | 2,290$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.7 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -15.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 52c | 1,924$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.48 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,888$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 9c | 1,781$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.53 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 48c | 1,756$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 42c | 1,388$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.56 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 48c | 1,370$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.56 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 49c | 1,006$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.3 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 844.29$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.31 | 4,874 | 41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 34c | 782.87$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.73 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 48c | 781.94$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.61 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Yes | 67c | 655.55$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 49c | 499.97$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 48c | 456.69$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 413 | 53.8%222 W · 191 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 47c | 335.1$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 51c | 332.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2715…a376backed Yes | 52c | 306.62$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 294.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 48c | 271$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.92 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 52c | 266.88$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 7c | 226.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 51c | 223.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 690 | 42.2%291 W · 399 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 49c | 219.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…582dbacked No | 49c | 204.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 28c | 198$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 7c | 190$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 49c | 169.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 47c | 132$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…9adfbacked Yes | 80c | 124.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 49c | 119.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 53c | 119.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 211 | 53.1%112 W · 99 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…f1b8backed Yes | 72c | 71.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 49c | 70.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5eaabacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 49c | 55.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 131 | 64.1%84 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 47c | 52.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…7205backed Yes | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…96d6backed Yes | 53c | 41.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 47c | 38.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9ca0backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…564ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…33ebbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5e…e779backed Yes | 58c | 36.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…05e4backed Yes | 51c | 36.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…c7c8backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…4cb5backed No | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 52c | 28.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…c545backed No | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…ac4fbacked Yes | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…ccdfbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brighton win on 2025-08-16?this page
- Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Fulham win on 2025-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.