TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5973…5eaa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: MLB, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST4045%18 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+58.7%+$12.33
Bulls vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+92.3%+$50.58
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+203%+$60.91
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+354.5%+$56.73
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+53.8%+$32.31
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+203%+$50.76
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.99
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$10.63
Thunder vs. Jazzbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzliesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30.48
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+112.8%+$16.91
Celtics vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+100%+$14
76ers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Hawks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Bucks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Bullsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+63.9%+$31.97
Hornets vs. Heatbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10.98
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.34
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$43.52
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sharks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+177.8%+$36.91
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+96.1%+$28.82
Ducks vs. Islandersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Bruins vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.64
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanesbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Red Wings vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$22.93
Penguins vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+58.7%+$17.62
Blackhawks vs. Kingsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+194.1%+$29.12
Blues vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Flames vs. Canucksbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+132.6%+$14.58
Rangers vs. Avalanchebacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Kraken vs. Blackhawksbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+104.1%+$12.46
Jets vs. Starsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.91
Capitals vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$10.33
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Sabres vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
Blackhawks vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.79
All 18 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.32
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+72.4%+$29.32
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.43
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$16.33
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+203%+$22.33
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$26.59
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+47.1%+$20.5
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will Fulham win on 2024-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST+108.3%+$13
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Guardians vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$16.91
Pirates vs. Philliesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Guardians vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$16.91
All 3 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+127.3%+$16.79
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Commanders vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+33.3%+$182.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-09-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.