MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32b0bedd3ce3d4ff62af11aa41d17c2f40d4aca1a13c38857930451f09c9e14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Guardians, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Guardians | 7c | 2,383$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Guardians | 54c | 2,010$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Reds | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd0…6f8cbacked Guardians | 50c | 1,450$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Guardians | 52c | 1,373$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.85 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Reds | 46c | 1,083$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.71 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 52c | 1,015$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Reds | 47c | 987.17$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.2 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 53c | 958.5$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.01 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 7c | 635.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b8…b745backed Guardians | 51c | 560$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Reds | 49c | 560$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Guardians | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 254 | 16.1%41 W · 213 L | -15.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Reds | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Guardians | 52c | 443.02$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.37 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Guardians | 54c | 427.78$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Guardians | 48c | 420.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Guardians | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Reds | 59c | 368.11$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Guardians | 53c | 347.21$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.02 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Guardians | 53c | 329.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Guardians | 51c | 311.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Guardians | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Reds | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Guardians | 53c | 211$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 50c | 201.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Guardians | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Reds | 52c | 191.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Reds | 54c | 183.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Reds | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Reds | 70c | 142.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Guardians | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Reds | 47c | 139.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Reds | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Guardians | 17c | 113.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Guardians | 54c | 111.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 55c | 109.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Guardians | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Guardians | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Guardians | 51c | 94.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…25a5backed Guardians | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 54c | 84.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Guardians | 55c | 81.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Reds | 51c | 60.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…3b80backed Reds | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Guardians | 52c | 55.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Guardians | 51c | 52.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Guardians | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…33a7backed Guardians | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds | 50c | 48.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…f8e7backed Guardians | 50c | 47.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Guardians | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ff…1b23backed Reds | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Guardians | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…35e8backed Reds | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Guardians | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Guardians | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…6014backed Guardians | 45c | 38.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…fd3cbacked Guardians | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Guardians | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd9…3dabbacked Reds | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…2a37backed Guardians | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5eaabacked Reds | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Guardians | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…f9b7backed Guardians | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Reds | 47c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…2d66backed Reds | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Guardians | 40c | 25.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 307 | 40.4%124 W · 183 L | -11.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…c396backed Guardians | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.