NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x058f12a49db2d4370338fc5bcb43709e4503cb6a06a60351f6f1ca8eeafde950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $610,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $668,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $610,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 540 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Lightning | 49c | 155,143$76,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,392.52 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Lightning | 52c | 109,448$56,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,730.86 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Canadiens | 51c | 80,000$40,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,400 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Canadiens | 50c | 44,730$22,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,365.25 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens | 48c | 25,536$12,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,203.25 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Canadiens | 51c | 23,526$11,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,998.4 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Lightning | 50c | 23,222$11,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,611 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…28e6backed Lightning | 50c | 22,177$11,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,088.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Canadiens | 48c | 20,719$9,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,945 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Lightning | 49c | 17,559$8,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,005.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Canadiens | 50c | 16,087$7,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.39 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Canadiens | 48c | 15,828$7,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,636.88 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canadiens | 49c | 15,506$7,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,592.72 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Canadiens | 48c | 15,295$7,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,341.65 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Canadiens | 51c | 10,310$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens | 49c | 10,000$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,926.69 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Canadiens | 48c | 10,000$4,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,833.35 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Canadiens | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Lightning | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,199.98 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canadiens | 51c | 9,390$4,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,761.84 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens | 48c | 9,000$4,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,359.9 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Canadiens | 49c | 6,949$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,404.24 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Lightning | 48c | 6,577$3,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.04 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Canadiens | 3c | 6,449$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Canadiens | 1c | 6,055$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 250 | 4.8%12 W · 238 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning | 52c | 5,653$2,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.67 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Lightning | 48c | 5,620$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.45 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Canadiens | 50c | 5,442$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.81 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Canadiens | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b45…41e3backed Canadiens | 49c | 4,000$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…ad03backed Canadiens | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Canadiens | 52c | 3,368$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.39 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Canadiens | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Lightning | 51c | 3,258$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.22 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Canadiens | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Canadiens | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Canadiens | 51c | 2,854$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.71 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Canadiens | 52c | 2,640$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.97 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 48c | 2,600$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.18 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Canadiens | 52c | 2,560$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Canadiens | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…9678backed Canadiens | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Lightning | 48c | 2,467$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…da62backed Canadiens | 33c | 2,383$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.55 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…84fcbacked Canadiens | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Canadiens | 52c | 2,071$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens | 46c | 2,016$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.1 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Lightning | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7c…d563backed Canadiens | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canadiens | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Canadiens | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…3864backed Canadiens | 51c | 1,990$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Canadiens | 1c | 1,988$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Lightning | 47c | 1,980$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.31 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…206fbacked Canadiens | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Lightning | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Canadiens | 51c | 1,903$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.76 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a04…ad88backed Lightning | 48c | 1,800$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lightning | 50c | 1,771$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.34 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…9422backed Canadiens | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Canadiens | 50c | 1,748$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.85 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Canadiens | 50c | 1,608$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.6 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Canadiens | 50c | 1,582$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.72 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Canadiens | 52c | 1,557$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.86 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Lightning | 54c | 1,548$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.08 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Canadiens | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Canadiens | 51c | 1,500$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.49 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Canadiens | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Canadiens | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Canadiens | 50c | 1,112$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Canadiens | 18c | 1,063$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.42 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Lightning | 51c | 1,005$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.89 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Canadiens | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa85…8542backed Canadiens | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…656bbacked Lightning | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…d86abacked Canadiens | 52c | 999.97$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Canadiens | 9c | 999.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Canadiens | 51c | 999.95$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.97 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Canadiens | 30c | 999.29$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.81 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Canadiens | 51c | 992.29$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.87 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bd…06d2backed Canadiens | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Canadiens | 49c | 935.94$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.61 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c2…e215backed Lightning | 48c | 927.08$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a0…2fdcbacked Canadiens | 2c | 913.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Canadiens | 17c | 907.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Canadiens | 51c | 900$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Lightning | 50c | 888$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 47c | 881.42$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.15 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Canadiens | 49c | 875.99$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.24 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7330…ea0abacked Canadiens | 2c | 872.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Lightning | 50c | 849.48$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.74 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…1a5ebacked Canadiens | 9c | 824.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Lightning | 60c | 816.44$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.28 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canadiens | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Canadiens | 1c | 782.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 145 | 8.3%12 W · 133 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Lightning | 50c | 680.62$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.31 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Canadiens | 51c | 666$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.66 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Canadiens | 50c | 642$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.24 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Lightning | 48c | 638$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiensthis page
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.