NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ab69c509ce28216134d9aff2b91725790f60ed70c0a179d3ad0a446f00a5ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Canadiens, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Lightning | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Lightning | 70c | 149.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Canadiens | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Canadiens | 29c | 128.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…2341backed Canadiens | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Canadiens | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lightning | 69c | 57.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Canadiens | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Canadiens | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Canadiens | 27c | 44.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Lightning | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Canadiens | 52c | 38.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Lightning | 73c | 34.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Lightning | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…a1f8backed Lightning | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lightning | 68c | 28.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Lightning | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…b6f8backed Lightning | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.