NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb37e7b621d26cbf2730dfee5aa5fb2586af44c7bd8c376f989545a8a65ce924b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 49c | 107,833$52,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,093.77 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 52,186$26,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,615.1 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 24,138$12,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,310.38 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 16,804$8,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,570.04 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 11,862$6,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,049.62 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 49c | 7,020$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,579.98 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 52c | 6,700$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,484 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,304$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.04 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 2,646$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.86 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…206fbacked Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…9678backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 1,335$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.75 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…9df5backed Under | 53c | 1,289$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 998$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.19 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 937$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 50c | 545$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.4 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Over | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 49c | 457.75$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.45 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 457$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.57 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 49c | 410.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Under | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1f5ebacked Under | 53c | 113.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Over | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 50c | 105.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 96.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…8e90backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 49c | 85.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…f4e8backed Over | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…4f40backed Over | 50c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 49c | 67.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Over | 50c | 53.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 24c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 41.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…4cf4backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 50c | 21.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2df…2f6bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.