TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Reds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Guardians, Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,877 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66b7…5400backed Guardians54c27,740$14,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,979.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef2…e986backed Reds46c26,880$12,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,515.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Reds48c20,937$10,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,887.4727948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Guardians52c11,702$6,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,085.199749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians52c11,395$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,925.211,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf980…6528backed Reds48c10,160$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,285.0911746.2%54 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Reds54c4,728$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.479,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedb…8687backed Guardians55c3,637$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008457.1%48 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Reds47c3,441$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.7298149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Guardians37c3,350$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.4251151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Guardians51c3,290$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.933554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Guardians51c3,163$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.215349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Reds54c2,594$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.7768656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb99…3587backed Reds46c2,500$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Reds64c2,212$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.411,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Reds50c2,158$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.5311357.5%65 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Guardians43c2,144$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.593450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Reds48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.336157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians52c2,034$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.032,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7457…3d0abacked Guardians52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78d…e8cbbacked Guardians38c1,944$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.833525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Guardians52c1,930$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.6224844%109 W · 139 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Guardians52c1,900$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9888749.4%43 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Guardians12c1,546$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.911,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Guardians52c1,454$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.5260249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Reds67c1,448$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.9386751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Reds46c1,429$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.11,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…bde0backed Reds49c1,428$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0977…900ebacked Guardians54c1,265$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Guardians22c1,264$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.846132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Reds48c1,243$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.496645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7727…366fbacked Guardians54c1,235$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa530…4280backed Guardians18c1,153$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.031717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Guardians54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf442…ccf8backed Guardians50c906.92$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1910834.3%37 W · 71 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Reds68c893.59$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29f7…c2e2backed Reds46c860$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Reds49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.3388549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c8…5644backed Guardians54c629.11$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa329…26a2backed Guardians51c609.8$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116038.3%23 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Guardians54c601.67$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Guardians52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3124546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Guardians52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017866.3%118 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians39c526.91$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0380955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Reds67c514.71$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4979740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Guardians51c484.35$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0224553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Guardians4c475$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.058762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Reds49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1621242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Guardians4c350.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.045852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Guardians14c333.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.461,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Guardians54c276.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017754.8%97 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Guardians53c275.4$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.965,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Guardians21c275.12$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5763942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10293240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd876…7771backed Guardians53c198.11$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01d1…d9b3backed Reds48c197.92$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9938…c7e8backed Guardians54c151.85$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210858.3%63 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Guardians10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed Reds48c145.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.833743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Reds50c139.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.225444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Guardians52c136.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8633349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Guardians15c135$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3970841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e4…e7efbacked Guardians22c128.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.19944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc811…a5b9backed Guardians20c125.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258439.3%33 W · 51 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Guardians13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Reds60c113.01$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9792754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3569…008bbacked Guardians55c105.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020448%98 W · 106 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Guardians12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1222312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked Guardians45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b6…27ddbacked Reds50c97.08$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.542339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Reds48c95.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.341,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Guardians22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203925.6%10 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Guardians53c88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6443250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f2…87c3backed Reds48c85.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians12c85.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Guardians54c85.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Guardians18c83.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152025%5 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Reds48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3378454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Reds49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6323852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235a…2e57backed Reds49c72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0812548%60 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb824…eb41backed Reds47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce7c…163abacked Reds47c61.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.621353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Reds76c56.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6323938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafbc…a8b5backed Guardians22c56.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3537552.5%197 W · 178 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d5…e85ebacked Guardians55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Guardians52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2649450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Reds48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2646753.7%251 W · 216 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds49c49.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.082,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc38d…7637backed Reds48c48.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.671553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Guardians52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2594455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cbd…8cbbbacked Guardians52c46.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda9f…00bebacked Guardians53c45.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc59…a855backed Reds48c45.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3063…f28abacked Guardians53c43.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc959…8556backed Reds48c43.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa82…4864backed Reds47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Reds46c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6841649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.