Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x497cb84ade781b78f295583c721a5e7606d494e1451a81580735361b6b99840e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 69c | 4,829$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,332.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,500$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 33c | 2,004$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.56 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 79c | 1,425$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.6 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 1,398$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 33c | 1,034$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 67c | 908.64$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.79 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 33c | 640.76$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.31 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 32c | 622.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 69c | 594.64$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 33c | 586.87$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.14 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 39c | 548.1$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 71c | 500$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 58c | 470.34$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.63 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 462.81$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 44c | 366.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 300.6$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked No | 71c | 282.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 34c | 233.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 32c | 231.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Yes | 33c | 200.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 35c | 194.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 41c | 191.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 67c | 161.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 64c | 156.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed No | 69c | 130.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 43c | 111.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 12c | 104.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…81cdbacked Yes | 33c | 104$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 31c | 94.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 69c | 93.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed No | 41c | 85.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 70c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8ad5backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked Yes | 64c | 51.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 63c | 37.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 58c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 67c | 35.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…a39cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 66c | 28.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29?this page
- Will Hamburger SV vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.