Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x649ed5ecbf700ce9ba7f26fdcbef387cbfbae331b5f6316d922e83f32cd2a3f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 1,818$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 67c | 1,737$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.51 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Yes | 31c | 1,575$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 30c | 1,201$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 70c | 790.76$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 35c | 592.06$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.04 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 485.41$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 70c | 417.06$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 70c | 306$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 29c | 206.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 73c | 107.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 29c | 91.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 70c | 75.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…d54bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Yes | 19c | 61.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…8160backed Yes | 27c | 59.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 74c | 51.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 28c | 48.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…264dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 72c | 22.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x369d…6d58backed No | 71c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked No | 71c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…bd87backed No | 72c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…c007backed No | 71c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29?Yes won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.