Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bac2b3fc99ec45f644c7cd3eb0f631762025302f793e25e388d14968ab001b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4536…4237backed Yes | 41c | 4,878$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 3,621$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.1 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 59c | 2,088$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 17c | 1,588$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.24 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 1,410$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 59c | 1,289$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.73 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 41c | 995.12$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 61c | 851$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.39 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 70c | 709.83$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 699$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 59c | 609.84$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.81 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 39c | 601$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 76c | 587.07$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 553.09$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 42c | 481.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 41c | 440.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 40c | 432.77$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 24c | 430.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 59c | 399.98$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 41c | 292.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 60c | 285$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 40c | 285$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 40c | 247.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 41c | 243.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 41c | 243.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 25c | 241.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 39c | 177.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 59c | 102.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…918cbacked Yes | 41c | 100.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 40c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2954…d34ebacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 58c | 74.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…1938backed Yes | 42c | 67.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3699…a16fbacked Yes | 24c | 62.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed Yes | 42c | 58.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 26c | 57.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 62c | 56.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…e698backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Yes | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 62c | 48.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…307cbacked Yes | 41c | 45.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 77c | 34.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…264dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…ee7dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29?Yes won
- Will Hamburger SV vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.