Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 HSBC Championships?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1812d16c817a579056999b9e379c3675ce56a856f5452cfccc4ccf58cd3a614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 37c | 2,189$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.31 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 27c | 1,558$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.76 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Yes | 54c | 1,481$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.2 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Yes | 37c | 1,477$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.33 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Yes | 68c | 1,375$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.56 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 33c | 1,334$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.89 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 32c | 1,025$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…cfd1backed Yes | 58c | 862.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 43c | 578.24$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.14 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed No | 50c | 400.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked Yes | 75c | 338.04$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 64c | 325.9$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 26c | 322.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 63c | 317.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 63c | 317.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 21c | 289$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +12.2wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 61c | 217.91$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked No | 62c | 196.77$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Yes | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 63c | 187.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Yes | 55c | 176.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0e2dbacked Yes | 79c | 170$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 44c | 169.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 61c | 163.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…6fcebacked Yes | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 40c | 143$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 45c | 129.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…0d50backed Yes | 55c | 111.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…c0edbacked Yes | 79c | 108.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 19c | 106.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…bb62backed Yes | 66c | 104.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 46c | 100.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 53c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed No | 42c | 79.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 74c | 78.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 78c | 71.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 60c | 66.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…71fabacked Yes | 47c | 65.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…50c5backed Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 54.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…a60cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Yes | 41c | 49.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…2555backed Yes | 46c | 46.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e9…bddabacked Yes | 61c | 41.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 39c | 38.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 46c | 23.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f3…bf9dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 HSBC Championships?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 HSBC Championships?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 HSBC Championships?No won
- Will Jack Draper win the 2025 HSBC Championships?No won
- Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2025 HSBC Championships?No won
- Will Reilly Opelka win the 2025 HSBC Championships?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 HSBC Championships?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.