Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b53af900529843bd56d59ed5fc9b2803c8455498063de2666517028fc22898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 39c | 9,200$3,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 61c | 9,200$5,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 59c | 918$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.56 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 41c | 445$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Yes | 29c | 348.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 41c | 336.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed No | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 328$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 307.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 11c | 299.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 43c | 265.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 59c | 236$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 24c | 210.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 56c | 180.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 56c | 145.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 59c | 91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 40c | 73.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 60c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…443bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…ab1fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24?this page
- Will Cagliari vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-08-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.