TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,373 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes39c5,080$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes37c3,821$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.3228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No56c3,159$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.961650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes65c3,029$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.71147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-89.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed No33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb840…2089backed No50c2,971$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes11c2,107$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes34c1,721$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.965030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…5c91backed Yes59c1,695$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.8940%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed No66c1,419$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.732737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4919…067ebacked Yes77c1,300$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47a…1db6backed No46c1,138$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes62c1,093$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.535151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes71c855$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick71cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked No45c504.91$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed No31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No14c500$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2af6…b030backed No25c405$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.52138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes64c354.11$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No66c332.27$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.148250%41 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes23c241.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No39c225$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+32.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71a9…31b7backed Yes30c210.13$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Yes24c209.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed Yes15c199.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302516%4 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No13c187.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No70c183.88$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.821283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xebf6…c629backed No66c169.4$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…68e3backed No37c163.68$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afc…ecd9backed Yes13c163.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked No20c160.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.45683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+103.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes42c157.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+97.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x643b…cd1cbacked No68c154.54$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Yes31c153.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No75c145.42$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes35c143.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes14c139.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-62%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes39c134.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.351323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35df…cf97backed Yes9c133.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61cd…541ebacked No40c122$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked No72c121$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+76.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes55c109$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.953450%17 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+815.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x945e…353dbacked Yes14c107.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…bf97backed Yes16c104.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b0…4d1ebacked Yes50c101$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked No32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed No29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c95.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa2…05aabacked Yes33c92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No40c87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.248248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes22c80.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick33cpaid+180.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes46c77.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.55433.3%18 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3d…597bbacked Yes40c76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a4…4051backed Yes40c75.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes23c74.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes18c74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.237129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c69.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0322221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes43c57.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked Yes35c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad42…c918backed Yes40c53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0163…9aa0backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4255…6dd5backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd83…c0c2backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No40c44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No38c41.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b2…e75fbacked Yes28c41.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…5e79backed No70c40.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd453…75ebbacked No38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda71…ebb9backed No39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes61c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.351216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-55.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes58c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b1…9b98backed Yes48c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4c0…dac7backed No55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc484…4123backed Yes45c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e3…521cbacked Yes62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+50.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d2…b34bbacked No55c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.