Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521d7d72ececd4d033d9941c918f424565f40bceda7f9dfb8b7fa85777fe8ddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf437…4090backed Yes | 79c | 1,268$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 70c | 827.71$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.88 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 16c | 787.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…4585backed No | 17c | 410$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…06edbacked Yes | 75c | 340$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 11c | 148.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…5016backed Yes | 68c | 147.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 74c | 135.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3699…a16fbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Yes | 77c | 61.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…84f1backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf9…ededbacked Yes | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 26c | 45.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…d399backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…49b9backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?this page
- Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will FC Augsburg finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will FC Koln finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Freiburg finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will RB Leipzig finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?Yes won
- Will Union Berlin finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Werder Bremen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.