Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bde71ad84a6ff83821156582e2367d4eab7b3d8e22f21cb65c61f2aaced93d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 63c | 3,450$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 1,675$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 36c | 1,510$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.66 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 36c | 1,291$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.74 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 938$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 47c | 400$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 41c | 348.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 51c | 343.14$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 49c | 130.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 39c | 122$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 27c | 106.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 61c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3699…a16fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 66c | 68.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…982abacked Yes | 34c | 55.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 65c | 50.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…030bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…cfd5backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 61c | 44.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked Yes | 45c | 39.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 45c | 36.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 34c | 33.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 44c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 32.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af0…011cbacked Yes | 34c | 31.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 35c | 28.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 39c | 27.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…9579backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?this page
- Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?Yes won
- Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will FC Augsburg finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will FC Koln finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Freiburg finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will RB Leipzig finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?Yes won
- Will Union Berlin finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
- Will Werder Bremen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.